Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
